Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know about Vega Crypto Strategies
Getting Started
What is Vega Crypto Strategies?
Vega is a cryptocurrency prediction and risk management platform that uses regime-based models to deliver institutional-grade analytics. We classify market conditions into five regimes (Bull Impulse, Bear Impulse, Bull Chop, Bear Chop, Crisis) and deploy specialized models for each state – the same approach used by hedge funds and professional trading desks.
How do I get started?
Sign up for a free 14-day trial (no credit card required). You'll immediately get access to regime classifications, predictions for 400+ cryptocurrencies across multiple time horizons, and professional risk management tools including Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculations.
Do I need any technical knowledge to use Vega?
No programming or quantitative finance background is required. Our dashboard is designed for traders of all skill levels. Advanced users can access detailed model statistics, feature importance data, and API integration, but the core platform is intuitive and user-friendly.
What cryptocurrencies do you support?
We provide predictions and regime analysis for 400+ cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all major altcoins with sufficient trading volume and liquidity. New assets are added regularly as they meet our data quality thresholds.
Predictions & Accuracy
How accurate are your predictions?
Our 7-day predictions achieve 52% directional accuracy with a 0.08 Information Coefficient (IC). Longer horizons perform better: 30-day predictions hit 55% accuracy (0.10 IC), and 90-day predictions reach 58% accuracy (0.11 IC). For crisis regimes specifically, our SHORT predictions achieve 79.5% accuracy. All metrics are from walk-forward validation – real out-of-sample testing, not curve-fitted backtests.
What does "walk-forward validation" mean?
Walk-forward validation tests our models on data they've never seen before, simulating real-time trading conditions. We train on historical data, then test on future periods – no peeking ahead. This prevents overfitting and gives you honest performance metrics that reflect what you would have experienced using Vega in real-time.
Do your predictions guarantee profits?
No. Predictions are informational tools, not guarantees. Even our best-performing models are wrong 20-40% of the time. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss. You must use proper risk management, position sizing, and stop-losses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often are predictions updated?
Regime classifications and predictions are updated every 4 hours using the latest market data. Crisis regime detection runs continuously with alerts sent in real-time when threshold conditions are met.
Regime Detection
What are the five market regimes?
Bull Impulse (strong uptrends with momentum), Bear Impulse (risk-off downtrends), Bull Chop (upward-biased consolidation), Bear Chop (downward-biased consolidation), and Crisis (high-volatility liquidation events). Each regime has unique characteristics requiring different trading strategies and risk parameters.
How do you detect regime changes?
We use an EMA/MACD hybrid classifier that analyzes price structure, momentum consistency, and volatility patterns. The system includes hysteresis to prevent flickering between regimes and quantifies transition risk to warn when regime shifts are likely. Regime detection runs automatically – you don't need to do anything.
What is your crisis detection track record?
We've achieved 100% detection on 7 major market events from 2022-2025, including LUNA collapse (May 2022), FTX crash (November 2022), and the August 2024 correction. Our November 2025 altcoin correction alert flagged 10 tokens 48 hours before they crashed -21% on average. Crisis detection prioritizes avoiding false negatives (missing crashes) over false positives.
Can I trade based on regime changes alone?
Regime classification is one input to a complete trading strategy, not a standalone signal. Use regime information to adjust position sizing, select appropriate strategies (trend-following vs. mean reversion), and set risk parameters. Combine regime data with our predictions, VaR analysis, and your own research.
Risk Management
What is Value-at-Risk (VaR)?
VaR estimates the maximum loss your portfolio could experience over a given time period at a specified confidence level. For example, a 95% 1-day VaR of $5,000 means there's a 95% probability your losses won't exceed $5,000 over the next day. Vega calculates regime-adjusted VaR – higher estimates during crisis regimes, lower during stable periods.
How should I use your position sizing recommendations?
Our Kelly Criterion-based position sizing suggests what percentage of your portfolio to risk based on prediction confidence and regime conditions. These are guidelines, not rules. Always adjust for your personal risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial situation. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Do you provide stop-loss recommendations?
Yes. We suggest stop-loss levels based on asset volatility, current regime, and time horizon. Stop-losses are asset-class specific: Bitcoin gets tighter stops due to lower volatility, while mid-cap altcoins get wider stops to avoid getting stopped out by normal noise. Remember: stop-losses can fail during extreme volatility due to slippage or exchange outages.
Can Vega prevent me from losing money?
No tool can prevent trading losses. Cryptocurrency markets are inherently risky and volatile. Vega provides professional-grade risk management tools to help you make informed decisions, but you are solely responsible for your trading outcomes. Even with our crisis detection, black swan events can occur without warning.
Pricing & Plans
What does the free trial include?
The 14-day free trial includes full access to all features: regime detection for 400+ cryptos, predictions across all time horizons (7d, 30d, 90d), VaR risk analytics, position sizing recommendations, and crisis alerts. No credit card required. After 14 days, choose a paid plan or downgrade to the limited free tier.
What's the difference between Free and Quant plans?
The Free plan covers 10 cryptocurrencies with basic regime detection. The Quant plan ($99/month) unlocks all 400+ assets, full prediction suite, advanced risk analytics, priority support, and API access. Quant is designed for serious traders managing $10K+ portfolios.
Is there an Enterprise plan?
Yes. Enterprise plans include white-label options, dedicated account management, custom model training, institutional SLAs, and compliance features for RIAs and family offices. Contact us at enterprise@vegacryptostrategies.com for pricing and details.
Can I cancel anytime?
Yes. Cancel your subscription anytime through account settings. Cancellation takes effect at the end of your current billing period. No long-term contracts or cancellation fees. If you cancel during the free trial, you won't be charged.
Do you offer refunds?
We offer a 30-day money-back guarantee for new Quant plan subscribers. If you're not satisfied within the first 30 days, contact support@vegacryptostrategies.com for a full refund. Enterprise plans have custom refund terms negotiated during onboarding.
Technical & API
Do you offer API access?
Yes. Quant and Enterprise plans include REST API access for regime data, predictions, and risk metrics. API documentation includes code examples in Python, JavaScript, and cURL. WebSocket support for real-time regime change notifications is coming in Q2 2026.
What data sources do you use?
We ingest real-time data from Binance (order books, trades, futures), CoinGecko (market cap, volume), Glassnode (on-chain metrics where available), and Bitfinex (margin positioning). All data is validated for quality and completeness before feeding into our models.
How do you handle exchange outages or data gaps?
If primary data sources are unavailable, we fall back to secondary exchanges and interpolate missing values using robust statistical methods. Predictions made with incomplete data are flagged with lower confidence scores. During major exchange outages, we may pause updates until data quality is restored.
Can I export historical predictions for backtesting?
Yes. Quant and Enterprise users can download CSV exports of all historical predictions, regime classifications, and performance metrics. This allows you to backtest your own trading strategies against our signals or integrate Vega data into your existing analytics pipelines.
Trust & Compliance
Is Vega a registered investment advisor?
No. Vega Crypto Strategies is a technology platform providing analytical tools and educational content. We are NOT registered as an investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Our predictions are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
How do you protect my data?
We use TLS 1.3 encryption for data in transit and AES-256 encryption for data at rest. Access controls follow the principle of least privilege. We do not sell or share your personal information with third parties. Payment processing is handled by Stripe (PCI-DSS Level 1 certified). See our Privacy Policy for full details.
Do you trade based on your own predictions?
Members of the Vega team may hold cryptocurrency positions, but we do not front-run our own signals or users. Predictions are published simultaneously to all users. We maintain strict information barriers to prevent conflicts of interest.
Can I trust your performance metrics?
All performance metrics are calculated from walk-forward validation – out-of-sample testing on data the models never saw during training. We publish full methodology details, including train/test splits, evaluation windows, and statistical significance tests. Our track record is independently verifiable by downloading historical prediction CSVs and comparing to actual market outcomes.
Still Have Questions?
Can't find the answer you're looking for? Our support team is here to help.