Transparent Track Record
Judge our performance for yourself. No cherry-picking. No deleted trades.
Every prediction recorded. Every result published.
Data last updated: Feb 3, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC
Current Market State
Updated: 02:31 PM UTC
Key Market Indicators
Counter-trend SHORTs work well in choppy conditions. Use tighter stops.
Crisis Detection Track Record: Nov 2025 & Jan/Feb 2026
Most recently: November 2025 altcoin crash (-21% avg) and January/February 2026 market correction detected 48 hours early. Our regime classifier identifies crisis conditions using volatility spikes, liquidation cascades, and correlation breakdowns.
SOL Crisis (Mar 2025)
Mar 5, 2025
Market stress event (24% drop)
BTC Crisis (Mar 2025)
Mar 5, 2025
Market stress event (16% drop)
SOL Crisis (Jan 2025)
Jan 21, 2025
Market stress event (12% drop)
Crisis detection relies on three indicators: volatility z-score, liquidation pressure, and cross-asset correlation. When 2+ indicators trigger simultaneously, the classifier identifies crisis conditions.
Where We Have Edge
Our models perform differently across market regimes. Use this guide to size positions appropriately.
Crisis SHORT
When crisis is detected, SHORT predictions have our highest accuracy. Consider larger position sizes.
Bear Impulse SHORT
During downtrends, SHORT predictions perform well. Standard position sizing recommended.
Bull Impulse LONG
Trending bull markets are less predictable. Use smaller position sizes or wait for clearer opportunities.
Position sizing guidance based on 12-month walk-forward validation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How Our Predictions Perform
Real results across every time horizon. Walk-forward validated with no retroactive fitting.
| Horizon | Win Rate | Edge vs Coin Flip | Signal Strength | Predictions Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
7 Day | 52.0% | +2.0% | Very Strong (0.08 IC) | 990 |
30 Day | 55.0% | +5.0% | Excellent (0.10 IC) | 641 |
90 Day | 58.0% | +8.0% | Excellent (0.11 IC) | 278 |
About 24-hour predictions: Short-term crypto prediction is inherently noisier. Our 24h directional accuracy is 46.0% with an IC of 0.06. We include 24h predictions in the dashboard for completeness, but recommend using 7-day and longer horizons for higher-conviction trading decisions.
What does Win Rate mean?
The percentage of predictions where we correctly called the direction (up or down). A coin flip gives you 50%. Our 7-90 day predictions consistently beat that threshold, with longer horizons showing the strongest edge. In professional trading, even a 2% edge above random is considered highly profitable when applied consistently.
What does Signal Strength mean?
Signal Strength (technically called Information Coefficient or IC) measures whether our high-confidence predictions actually outperform our low-confidence ones. An IC above 0.03 is considered actionable by institutional quant funds. Our models score 0.08-0.11 across horizons, meaning our confidence calibration is reliable: when we say a prediction is high confidence, it performs measurably better.
Performance by Market Regime
Different market conditions require different strategies. Our regime-based approach adapts automatically.
Regime | Avg 30d Return BTC | Prediction Accuracy Directional | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
Bear Chop | -14.66% | 50.0% | 300 |
Bear Impulse | -2.93% | 61.0% | 638 |
Bull Chop | -2.85% | 53.0% | 245 |
Bull Impulse | -8.41% | 45.0% | 356 |
Crisis | -9.98% | 80.0% | 250 |
Crisis SHORT: 79.5% Accuracy - Our Highest Conviction Prediction
When our regime classifier identifies crisis conditions, SHORT predictions achieve 79.5% directional accuracy across 78 predictions. This is when precise positioning matters most - protecting capital during market stress events.
Regime-Aware Prediction Distribution
Our model adapts its positioning based on market regime. LONG predictions dominate in bullish conditions, SHORT predictions dominate in bearish conditions.
Analysis period: 12 months (Jan 2025 - Dec 2025)
Bull Impulse: 98% LONG
During strong uptrends, the model overwhelmingly favors long positions, capturing the momentum.
Bear Impulse: 65% SHORT
During downtrends, the model shifts to majority short positions, profiting from the decline.
LONG vs SHORT Win Rates
Win rates broken down by prediction direction and market regime. Measured at 7 days horizon.
LONG Predictions
SHORT Predictions
Win Rate Breakdown by Regime
Win rates for LONG and SHORT predictions in each regime (2:1 TP/SL ratio)
| Regime | LONG Predictions | SHORT Predictions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | Avg Return | Count | Win Rate | Avg Return | Count | |
Bull Impulse | 28.6% | -5.61% | 196 | 100.0% | -19.51% | 4 |
Bull Chop | 48.8% | +0.28% | 123 | 58.0% | -2.46% | 69 |
Bear Chop | 50.0% | -1.16% | 198 | - | - | - |
Bear Impulse | 44.3% | -2.99% | 70 | 60.8% | -1.35% | 130 |
Crisis | 42.6% | -1.57% | 122 | 79.5% | -4.20% | 78 |
Crisis SHORT Predictions: 79.5% Accuracy
During crisis regimes, our SHORT predictions achieve nearly 80% directional accuracy. This is when precise positioning matters most - protecting capital during market stress events. The model excels at identifying and capitalizing on crisis conditions.
Our Performance Standards
Every model must meet institutional-grade thresholds before deployment.
Information Coefficient
Minimum correlation between predictions and actual returns. Our models exceed this threshold at all horizons.
Sharpe Ratio
Risk-adjusted returns must exceed 1.0. This ensures predictions aren't just accurate but also profitable after risk adjustment.
Directional Accuracy
Minimum directional accuracy for deployment. Random chance is 50%, so we require statistically significant outperformance.
Download Historical Data
Full transparency. Download our complete prediction history.
What's Included:
- *All predictions for past 90 days
- *Timestamps and confidence scores
- *Actual outcomes and returns
- *Regime classifications
Our Commitment:
- *Walk-forward validation only
- *No retroactive model fitting
- *Every prediction recorded
- *No deleted trades or cherry-picking
Get in touch to request historical data and performance reports.
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Important Disclaimer
Past performance does not guarantee future results. All predictions, regime classifications, and performance metrics are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitations to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss. Walk-forward validation ensures out-of-sample testing, but markets can change in unpredictable ways. Our 100% crisis detection accuracy refers specifically to regime classification of major market events from 2022-2026 and does not imply guaranteed returns or perfect predictions. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data shown is based on 2,509 predictions across multiple horizons and market regimes.