Performance Guarantee
We charge you for predictions and market intelligence. If those predictions stop providing value, we shouldn't be charging you. It's that simple.
Our Commitment
This isn't marketing spin. It's a contractual commitment: if our models underperform, we freeze your payments until performance recovers.
After 25 years in traditional finance, I've seen too many "black box" systems that charge subscriptions regardless of whether they're actually working. Users pay month after month for deteriorating predictions because they can't easily measure performance - or the vendor hides it.
Vega is different. We publish our performance publicly. We validate our models monthly. And we put our revenue on the line if we underperform.
This aligns our incentives with yours: we only make money when our models are delivering value.
- Iain, Founder
How It Works
Monthly Validation
Every month we conduct comprehensive validation of all prediction models against actual outcomes. Walk-forward testing on data the models have never seen.
Public Results
Performance reports published first week of each month on our dashboard. Directional accuracy, Information Coefficient, crisis detection - wins and losses.
Auto Payment Freeze
If performance drops below thresholds, billing is automatically suspended. You keep full access - we just stop charging until performance recovers.
Performance Thresholds
We define "acceptable performance" using three metrics measured over rolling 90-day periods. If ANY threshold is breached, payments freeze.
7-Day Directional Accuracy
Must beat random (50%) by a statistically significant margin. Measured across all predictions.
Freeze trigger: Below 52% for 2 consecutive months
Information Coefficient
Positive correlation between predictions and actual outcomes. IC >0.03 is actionable in institutional quant strategies.
Freeze trigger: IC turns negative for any 90-day period
Systemic Event Detection
Systemic market events (BTC 7-day close-to-close drawdown >15% triggering Bear Impulse or Crisis regime). Individual altcoin drops are not covered.
If missed: Full public investigation and disclosure (not automatic freeze)
Payment Freeze Process
When We Freeze
Immediate notification sent to all subscribers explaining the situation
Billing suspended starting from the next billing cycle
Full access maintained - you keep using Vega, we just stop charging
During the Freeze
- You continue to have full platform access
- We work to diagnose and fix the performance issues
- Monthly updates on remediation progress
- No retroactive charges for the freeze period
When We Resume Billing
Billing resumes only when:
- Performance metrics return to acceptable levels for one full month
- We publish a recovery report explaining what happened and how we fixed it
- Subscribers receive 7 days advance notice before billing resumes
You can cancel during or after a freeze with no penalty.
Our Track Record
Historical performance since model deployment.
| Period | 7-Day Accuracy | IC | Crisis Detection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q1 | 58% | 0.07 | 100% (1/1) |
| 2024 Q2 | 54% | 0.05 | 100% (0 events) |
| 2024 Q3 | 61% | 0.09 | 100% (1/1) |
| 2024 Q4 | 56% | 0.06 | 100% (0 events) |
| 2025 Full Year | 57% | 0.07 | 100% (3/3) |
Months below threshold
Payment freezes triggered
Historical BTC Systemic Events Validated
| Date | Event | BTC Drawdown | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | Altcoin Correction (10 tokens) | -21% avg | ✓ Production |
| Mar 2025 | SOL + BTC Crisis | -24% / -16% | ✓ Production |
| Jan 2025 | SOL Crisis | -12% | ✓ Production |
| Mar 2020 | COVID Black Thursday | -40% | Backtest |
Production detections are from our live system (Jan 2025 onwards). Backtest results show historic indicator performance but were not detected in real-time.
Latest Event: January 2026 BTC Correction
Timeline
- Jan 27-28: Bear Chop regime at ~$89K
- Jan 30: Bear Impulse detected at ~$83K
- Feb 4: 7-day drawdown crosses -16%
- Feb 5: Price at ~$71K (-18% from peak)
Detection Performance
- ✓ Bear Impulse detected 4 days early
- ✓ Regime shift identified before 15% threshold
- ✓ Continuous SHORT predictions throughout decline
What This Guarantee Does NOT Cover
Market Conditions
Extended periods where all prediction models underperform, black swan events no model could predict, or regulatory changes that alter market structure.
Trading Losses
This guarantee covers model performance, not your trading results. Even accurate predictions don't guarantee profits - execution and risk management are your responsibility.
Individual Predictions
Some predictions will be wrong. That's how probabilities work. This guarantee is about aggregate performance over 90-day periods, not individual predictions.
We Are Confident Enough to Put Our Money On It
We built this guarantee because we believe in our models. Start your free trial and see the performance for yourself.
This Performance Guarantee is a commitment to subscribers regarding billing practices. It does not constitute a guarantee of trading profits or financial returns. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This document should be read alongside our Terms of Service and Risk Disclosure.
Vega Crypto Strategies Ltd • Last updated: February 2026